As the graph below clearly illustrates, Firefox has been steadily
(and aggressively) gaining market share among internet-savvy users. Between Jan'03 and May'07, Firefox's usage jumped from a mere 4% to almost 34% (an increase of about 740%!) while IE's share declined from about 85% to slightly less than 59% during the same period. The data was collected from W3Schools.com's log-files, and represents mostly internet users with an interest for web technologies.
It is interesting to note that this data can be represented by a linear fit with a high degree of accuracy. The r2 of the models are, respectively, 0.97 and 0.98 (r2=1 means a perfect fit).
As shown in the figure below, if this trend continues (as in the past 4.5 years), it can be expected that Firefox will surpass Internet Explorer and become the #1 web browser among web-savvy users in as early as December 2008!
If the trend were to continue for the next 7.5 years or so, the use of IE would be completely dependent on those users who simply don't know enough to install a different web browser, other than the one that came pre-installed in their machines.
Globally, IE currently holds about 66% of the market share, while Firefox has around 25%.
UPDATE (06/11/07): A new key player has just entered the game. Today Apple announced Safari for Windows. A beta version is already available for downloading from the company's website, however it may be wise to wait a bit until a few security bugs are sorted out. The final version of Safari 3 is expected to come out in October.
How's that going to affect IE's dominance and Firefox's spectacular growth rate? Only time will tell, but it seems clear to me that IE's days are numbered.
Firefox en route to beat Internet Explorer as #1 browser among web-savvy users
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1 comments:
IE and Firefox are now both excellent browsers. IE is a little faster on most web page rendering, but Firefox has a much better extention set. My primary browser will still remain AVANT (with a leaner and faster user interface based on the IE engine). I enjoy the choice that Firefox brings to the market, and use it on my Linux box. Apple does not even enter my mind as an alternative. Only other logical alternative is Opera.
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